发信人: orion.bbs@ptt.cc (火星上的人类学家) 看板: astronomy
标  题: Re: [新闻] 2036年行星恐撞地球 俄太空署毅议策
发信站: 批踢踢实业 (2009/12/31 Thu 16:21:20)

根据维基百科
http://tinyurl.com/b3qpa

99942 Apophis is a near-Earth asteroid that caused a brief period of concern in December
2004 because initial observations indicated a small probability (up to 2.7%)
that it would strike the Earth in 2029. Additional observations provided
improved predictions that eliminated the possibility of an impact on Earth or
the Moon in 2029. However, a possibility remains that during the 2029 close
encounter with Earth, Apophis will pass through a gravitational keyhole, a
precise region in space no more than about 600 meters across, that would set
up a future impact on April 13, 2036. This possibility kept the asteroid at
Level 1 on the Torino impact hazard scale until August 2006. It broke the
record for the highest level on the Torino Scale, being, for only a short
time, a level 4, before it was lowered.[5]

Additional observations of the trajectory of Apophis revealed the keyhole
will likely be missed and on August 5, 2006 Apophis was lowered to a Level 0
on the Torino Scale. As of October 7, 2009, the impact probability for April
13, 2036, is calculated as 1 in 250,000.[6] An additional impact date in 2037
was also identified; the impact probability for that encounter is calculated
as 1 in 12.3 million.

结论：机会非常非常的小。
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※ 编辑: orion           来自: 59.112.232.234       (12/31 16:21)