Update #9
Fri, 23 Sep 2011 10:01:35 AM UTC+0800

As of 9:30 p.m. EDT Sept. 22, 2011, the orbit of UARS was 110 mi by 115 mi
(175 km by 185 km). Re-entry is possible sometime during the afternoon or
early evening of Sept. 23, Eastern Daylight Time. The satellite will not be
passing over North America during that time period. It is still too early to
predict the time and location of re-entry with any more certainty, but
predictions will become more refined in the next 24 hours.

预计在24日的早上到中午(+8时区)坠落

UARS预测将不会进入北美地区，但时间跟地点仍是未知数...


※ 引述《kc1446 (咱只有这条路)》之铭言：
: 再送来一个update
: Update #7
: Thu, 22 Sep 2011 06:35:54 AM GMT+0800
: As of 1:30 p.m. EDT Sept. 21, 2011, the orbit of UARS was 120 mi by 130 mi
:  (190 km by 205 km). Re-entry is expected sometime during the afternoon of
:  Sept. 23, Eastern Daylight Time. The satellite will not be passing over
: North America during that time period. It is still too early to predict the
:  time and location of re-entry with any more certainty, but predictions will
:  become more refined in the next 24 to 48 hours.
: Update #8
: Thu, 22 Sep 2011 07:44:51 PM GMT+0800
: As of 7 a.m. EDT Sept. 22, 2011, the orbit of UARS was 115 mi by 120 mi (
: 185 km by 195 km). Re-entry is expected sometime during the afternoon of
: Sept. 23, Eastern Daylight Time. The satellite will not be passing over North
:  America during that time period. It is still too early to predict the time
:  and location of re-entry with any more certainty, but predictions will become
:  more refined in the next 24 to 36 hours.
: www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=279641928730147
: 杨正雄先生今晨五时用放大摄影拍到的URAS身影

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◆ From: 140.116.97.137
推 snocia:日本文部科学省发表的预测　http://i.imgur.com/IqORw.jpg   09/23 13:32
→ snocia:此图公开在该单位的facebook上，是根据Updte#9的资料和      09/23 13:33
→ snocia:UARS轨道在地面投影的轨迹绘成。                           09/23 13:34
→ snocia:该省指出，不知为何NASA发表不会降落在北美洲               09/23 13:35
→ snocia:同时注明因为大气抵抗的影响，实际落下的轨道会有不同。     09/23 13:36

Update #10
Fri, 23 Sep 2011 10:45:08 PM GMT+0800

As of 10:30 a.m. EDT on Sept. 23, 2011, the orbit of UARS was 100 miles by

105 miles (160 km by 170 km). Re-entry is expected late Friday, Sept. 23, or

early Saturday, Sept. 24, Eastern Daylight Time. Solar activity is no longer

the major factor in the satellite’s rate of descent. The satellite’s

orientation or configuration apparently has changed, and that is now slowing

its descent. There is a low probability any debris that survives re-entry

will land in the United States, but the possibility cannot be discounted

because of this changing rate of descent. It is still too early to predict

the time and location of re-entry with any certainty, but predictions will

become more refined in the next 12 to 18 hours.

还是一样，不会落美国~~

刚刚有看到日本发布说会在台湾或日本一带著陆(?)